Posts Tagged ‘commodity trading’

Why Some Traders Are Successful – And Some Are Not

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

SuccessI think successful traders realize a few important things that escape the failures. It doesn’t seem to matter if they trade discretionary or with systems, they all seem to know that the market is the boss. They are defensive and have a great deal of respect for risk. They all tend to manage risk and let reward take care of itself. The failures are for the most part completely focused on the reward, usually at the expense of risk.

Also successful traders share similar attitudes toward expectation for reward. They, for the most part, believe there is a risk premium over the hedger that is available to the speculator. They are also well aware that they are not entitled to it, only that it is available. Second, they believe that the rate of return is tied to the cost of money. Finally, they view their jobs to be a long term process to obtain that return without risking a drawdown beyond what they can handle, or the random risk of ruin. The failures tend to think there are returns consistently available at the higher levels of 50% and 60%. Unfortunately they find out the hard way that they must be more realistic to survive.

There is nothing magical that I can share with our readers. The reality is that trading is one of the most challenging endeavors that you will ever undertake. Get a precise logical plan. The logic behind the method you choose is critical. It is impossible to trust the interpretation of past data where logic is absent. Then proceed with realistic expectations, understanding that you will encounter more obstacles than you might imagine. Accept the real risk. Previous draw downs are simply a statistical guideline to potential risk and not the true risk. True acceptance of risk means you know you can lose your money. The good news is that this freedom should allow you now to think in probabilities as opposed to being driven by emotion. Also seek help. Get smart people around you. Get aligned with other traders or a firm that can help you work on these concepts.

Facts And Fantasies About Commodity Futures

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

Friday, July 31st, 2009

In a 2004 groundbreaking study from The Yale School of Management’s Center for International Finance titled “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures”, Drs. Gary Gorton and Ken Rouwenhorst show that not only are commodity futures negatively correlated to stocks and bonds, but also that commodity returns are greater than bonds and have about the same average returns as stocks. Surprised

The real surprise, however, is that commodity futures returns had a lower standard deviation (lower risk) than stock returns for the 43 years they studied. This study also confirmed that commodity futures work best when needed most in a portfolio. This is mainly because stock and bond returns are negatively influenced by inflation, where commodity futures benefit from inflation. In other words, during periods of inflation or expected inflation, stock and bond returns underperform commodity returns.

Anyway you look at it; these reports legitimize commodities and challenge the “too risky” myths that have been adopted over time. Perhaps all the stories of lost assets can be attributed to two risky behaviors of investing, unacceptable leverage and poor risk management. However, these risky behaviors have nothing to do with the core properties of commodity futures.

To receive the full Yale School of Management’s report, “Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures”, click here to email me and enter “Yale” as the subject. The report will be sent in a PDF format.

A Good Quote From John Henry

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Monday, August 3rd, 2009

In Michael Covel’s book- Trend Following, the legendary trader John Henry is quoted as saying:

“We can’t always take advantage of a particular period. However, in an uncertain world, perhaps the investment philosophy that makes the most sense, if you study the implications carefully, is trend following. Trend following consists of buying high and selling low. For 19 years, we have consistently bought high and sold low. If trends were not the underlying nature of markets, our type of trading would have very quickly put us out of business. It would not take 19 years or even 19 months of buying high or selling low ALL of the time to bankrupt you.

Chart

Nevertheless, trends are an integral, underlying reality in life. How can someone buy high, sell low, and be successful for two decades unless the underlying nature of markets is to trend? On the other hand I’ve seen year after year, brilliant men buying low and selling high for awhile successfully and then going broke because they thought they understood why a certain investment instrument had to perform in accordance to their personal logic.”